1. Why the nationwide power rationing?  

The main logic of power rationing is as follows: first, the output of thermal coal is insufficient, the coal storage capacity of power plants is insufficient, and the high coal price leads to the weak willingness of thermal power plants to generate electricity, resulting in the imbalance of power supply and demand;  Second, local governments should respond to the "dual control" of energy, actively implement the policy of "carbon neutrality", and take measures to limit production by stopping and limiting power supply for enterprises in specific industries.  

2. What are the impacts of power rationing on different industries?  

Upstream resources and raw materials plate is facing volume price rise, capacity supply continues to be tight, long-term "double control of energy consumption" affect performance growth;  The impact in the middle and lower reaches mainly comes from the cost side pressure brought by the rising prices of energy and raw materials in the upstream, and manufacturing profits are facing a squeeze.  Electric power, coal, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials are greatly affected, while machinery, agricultural products, light industry, electrical equipment, home appliances and automobiles are slightly affected.  

Electric power: lack of coal storage, high coal price, loss of thermal power plants resulting in insufficient power generation are the main limiting factors of this power restriction.  Thermal power losses accounted for more than 50% in the second quarter, long-term sustainability is not conducive to the development of the manufacturing industry.  Some areas allow coal electricity market transaction price to float 10%, good long association electricity price negotiation.  Long-term price liberalization is a trend, while the scale of green electricity transactions is expected to improve.  

Coal: Coal supply shortage is the main cause of the power rationing, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term.  Rising demand for electricity in the manufacturing industry and unstable new energy generation have increased demand for thermal power and coal, while the supply side continues to be constrained by safety and environmental protection.  At present, various departments have been coordinating coal production capacity, and toward the end of the summer peak, thermal coal demand will gradually weaken, coal prices are expected to maintain high shock.  

Non-ferrous: power supply constraints support aluminum prices up.  Electrolytic aluminum is mostly controlled, and under the double control of energy consumption and power restriction policy, the supply is strongly constrained, and the capacity may shrink again.  Downstream aluminum processing demand is also limited by electricity, and the installed high boom of new energy vehicles and new energy has a strong pull force on aluminum demand, and aluminum demand is firm.  Power limit upgrade, refined copper supply down to 188,000 tons, superimposed by the impact of the epidemic short-term concentrate import restrictions, the overall supply of copper can be tight, low inventory support copper price high shock.  

Iron and steel: on the supply side, electric furnace enterprises with poor profits in iron and steel enterprises will be mainly affected. At present, electric furnace enterprises limit production by about 50%. With the seasonal reduction of power limit and scrap collection, it is expected that the operation rate of electric furnace steelmaking will decline rapidly.  In terms of demand, power cuts may affect terminal production such as cement, which in turn affects the steel demand side.  

Building materials: the scope of power restriction spreads to the whole country, the contraction effect of supply is obvious, the overall stock of cement declines faster, the price of cement in the southern region recently increased by about 40%.  The demand side is relatively stable, the national average cement delivery rate is high, if the power limit exceeds expectations, cement enterprises in the fourth quarter performance elasticity is high.  

Chemical industry: In the short term, the supply of chemical fiber in high-yield provinces has been greatly impacted, and the price rise of chemical raw materials has a continuity, which inhibits the downstream demand.  At the same time, under the policy of power and production restriction, enterprises' new production capacity is blocked, which affects the release of enterprise performance.  In the medium and long term, it will still take time to achieve the dual control goal of energy consumption, and the supply of chemical products for high energy consumption industries will be tight for a long time.